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NASS: September crop production report shows record corn and soybean yields, mixed production changes
Summary
NASS reported record forecast yields for corn (183.6 bu./acre) and soybeans (53.2 bu./acre). Planted and harvested acreage were mostly unchanged from August; overall production varied by commodity with corn down slightly year-over-year and soybeans at a record high.
NASS officials released the September crop production report, forecasting a record corn yield of 183.6 bushels per acre and a record soybean yield of 53.2 bushels per acre, while noting mixed production changes across other crops.
Patrick Boyle, chief of the CREF NASS Crops Branch, told attendees that NASS used two field surveys in August and September (about 6,900 ag-yield survey responses and roughly 3,090 objective-field samples for corn and soybeans), satellite yield indications, and certified acreage from the Farm Service Agency to prepare the estimates.
Boyle said planted and harvested acreage for corn were unchanged from last month at 90,700,000 and 82,700,000 acres respectively (about 4% below 2023). He described a record-high corn yield at 183.6 bushels per acre, up 0.3% from August and 3.6% from 2023, producing a forecast total of 15,200,000,000 bushels, down 1% from 2023. "Yield at 183.6 bushels is a record high," Boyle said.
For soybeans, Boyle reported planted acres at 87,100,000 and harvested acres at 86,300,000 (unchanged from August). He said the soybean yield forecast is a record 53.2 bushels per acre and total production is forecast at 4,590,000,000 bushels, about 10.1% higher than 2023.
Boyle reviewed state-level maps showing numerous record forecasts across major producing states and presented objective-yield metrics (including ears-per-acre and pod counts) used to cross-check farmer responses and satellite indications. He also noted commodity-specific changes: cotton area rose slightly month-to-month while yield and production fell roughly 3.9% (this month’s cotton yield forecast was the lowest since 2015 and Texas showed an approximate 12% year-over-year drop); peanut production was up about 13% from 2023; walnut production in California was the lowest since 2019; and navel orange production in California was 39,000,000 boxes, up 800,000.
Officials reminded listeners that the Office of Management and Budget statistical policy restricts public comment on principal federal economic indicator reports within 30 minutes of release; NASS and World Agricultural Outlook Board staff said they would accept follow-up by phone or email and would hold a 1:00 p.m. Eastern social media event to take additional questions.
The next NASS releases noted at the briefing included a quarterly grain stocks report and an annual small-grain summary scheduled for Sept. 30 and the next monthly crop production report on Oct. 11.
