Mark Ryan tells Marlington Local board forecast shows small near-term deficit, larger risks by 2027–29

Mark Ryan, the presenter for the district’s five-year forecast, told the Marlington Local School District Board at a Nov. 18 work session that the district began the year with about $7,141,000 and is expected to collect nearly $29 million in tax revenue this year, producing an estimated $156,000 operating deficit.

“We started the year with 7,141,000,” Ryan said, adding that the district is “anticipating… almost 29,000,000 in tax revenue this year” and that the result is “about a $156,000 operating deficit.” He told the board a recent valuation settlement related to pipeline (public-utility) property will reduce the district’s reported pipeline value by roughly $24–24.5 million this year.

Ryan described how the settlement both produces a one-time catch-up payment and changes ongoing accounting: the district expects a back-tax payment this year of about $2,061,000, but much of the pipeline-related revenue is recorded as transfers out to restricted funds rather than available to offset general‑fund operating costs. “That transfer is jumping to 3,400,000” in the forecast, Ryan said, explaining how transfers reduce the amount that can be used for day-to-day operations.

On the revenue side, Ryan said interest income has been slightly stronger than anticipated but that projections assume interest receipts will decline as cash balances fall and the federal funds rate is reduced. He also summarized state-aid changes: most state funding is flat year to year, with a small restructuring of food-service calculations that shifts some dollars from unrestricted to restricted revenues.

Expenses are driving most of the forecast pressure. Ryan said salaries and benefits are the largest cost drivers because federal funds that temporarily offset personnel costs (ESSER and other federal allocations) have expired and those costs have come back into the general fund. “Your largest expenses here are gonna be salaries,” he said, noting health‑insurance and other benefit increases statewide are adding to projected costs.

Ryan highlighted longer-term risk if current trends continue: while the forecast in this cycle shows a positive reserve balance through five years, deficits grow in 2027–29 absent changes to transfers, staffing or other expenditures. He advised the board to consider options such as revisiting transfer policies and capital priorities but cautioned that personnel reductions would affect educational programs.

Board members asked about specific options to reduce future deficits. Ryan said personnel is the single biggest lever but warned about impacts on services and staffing levels. He also explained how state rules (discussed in the meeting as the House Bill 920 guarantee) constrain revenue swings by preserving a millage floor, so revenue responses to changes in property valuation are limited.

The board was told the five-year forecast will be presented for formal approval at the regular board meeting on Thursday; Ryan offered to return to answer remaining questions.

Votes at a glance: The board moved and seconded adoption of the work-session agenda earlier in the meeting; the clerk called the roll and members present voted to adopt the agenda. A motion to adjourn was approved at the end of the session and the board adjourned until the Thursday meeting.