LAO warns California prison projections may understate Proposition 36 impact as CDCR updates models
CDCR told an Assembly budget subcommittee that fall 2025 projections show modest declines in prison and parole populations through 2030; the LAO said recent admissions trends suggest the Administration may be underestimating Prop 36's near‑term prison impact and urged updated figures at the May Revision.
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Kathy Jefferson, deputy director of the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation’s Office of Research, told the Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 that CDCR’s fall 2025 population projections — produced through June 30, 2025 — show expected decreases in custody and parole populations over the next five years. "We expect a net 5 year decrease of 6.5% for our institution population and a net 5 year decrease of 10.4% for the parole population between June 2025 and June 2030," Jefferson said.
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