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Consultant presents 10-year demographic forecast, projects modest enrollment decline for Raytown C‑2
Summary
A consultant told the Raytown Quality School District board that enrollment is forecast to decline modestly over the next decade and highlighted school-level imbalances the district can address through facilities and staffing planning; board leaders said the report will guide community engagement and a fall facility plan.
Matthew Cropper, a consultant with Cropper GIS Consulting, presented a demographic study and 10-year enrollment and utilization forecast to the Raytown Quality School District board at its May 12 meeting.
Cropper told the board the district should expect a steady, moderate decline in enrollment over the next decade. He presented grade-level projections showing K–5 enrollment falling from about 3,367 this year to roughly 3,199, middle-school enrollment from about 1,669 to 1,571, and high-school enrollment from about 2,386 to about 2,166; total district enrollment was presented near 7,692 by 2034–35. He said the forecast relies on assumptions about housing turnover, migration and mortgage rates (his team assumed mortgage rates would remain below 8 percent) and noted that policy changes such as expanded vouchers or open-enrollment rules could alter the results.
The consultant also reviewed school-by-school utilization. He said districtwide elementary utilization runs near 75 percent (forecast to fall to about 72 percent), while some schools show imbalances: Southwood and Fleet Ridge are projected to rise toward full capacity, and Blue Ridge and Spring Valley are projected to run well below capacity. Cropper recommended using the enrollment forecast with a utilization analysis to identify opportunities to rebalance boundaries or repurpose facilities rather than make immediate, large-scale changes.
Superintendent Dr. Martin Knox and other district leaders described how the study will be used. "This data helps us match expenditures to projected enrollment," a district official said, adding the findings will inform staffing and facilities decisions and that the district plans community engagement before any final proposals. Board members were told the district aims to return with a plan in the fall (October–November) to consider facility consolidation or repurposing where appropriate.
Board members asked whether the study compared neighboring districts and how the report will be updated if state policy changes; Cropper said his firm models the district specifically and monitors enrollment trends and would recommend updates if assumptions are violated. The board did not take a formal action on the study at the meeting; administrators described the report as a planning tool to guide future budget and facility decisions.
Next steps: district staff will use the forecast in facility and staffing planning and engage the community before returning with recommendations later in the year.
