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Cook County forecast shows FY26 general fund surplus as sales tax uptick and remote sales boost receipts
Summary
County staff told the Independent Revenue Forecasting Commission that sales-tax receipts and other economically sensitive revenues outperformed estimates in FY25, producing a projected FY26 general fund surplus of about $21.1 million; staff also reported $137 million in ARPA funds remained to be spent before a December 2026 deadline.
Cook County staff reported that several economically sensitive revenue streams exceeded budgetary expectations in fiscal 2025, producing stronger-than-expected receipts and a positive near-term outlook for the general fund.
"Many of the county's revenues exceed budget in fiscal '25, including the hotel, amusement, and parking tax revenues," the chair said during opening remarks, noting sales-tax growth tied to state legislation. Staff later described sales tax outperformance of roughly $114 million in FY25 and told commissioners that a change in state sourcing rules has substantially increased collections from out-of-state or changing-location sellers.
Michael, the county forecaster, told the commission the January 2026 outlook shows a net increase of about $41.7 million in FY26 revenues since the October 2025 forecast, driven in part by a $17.6 million upward revision to county sales-tax estimates. He said that, on the current assumptions, the county is projecting a FY26 general-fund surplus of about $21.1 million but warned that out-year deficits are still expected as expenses rise faster than revenues.
Staff explained the sales-tax gain is partly a product of recent Illinois legislation that changed sourcing for certain remote and marketplace sales. "We received data from the Illinois Department of Revenue separating the sales tax into categories," Michael said, noting that changing-location (CL) records — which the state defines as taxpayers without a permanent in-state place of business — accounted for a much larger share of receipts in 2025. Commissioners and presenters discussed that CL receipts appear to represent a large share of remote or out-of-state activity and estimated the share at roughly 30 percent of county sales tax.
The presentation also reviewed special-purpose funds and a multiyear view of transportation and other restricted balances. Staff cautioned that some special-purpose funds, such as motor-fuel and other departmental reserves, may be drawing down over time and will require monitoring.
On federal relief, staff said Cook County received $1 billion in ARPA funding and must obligate or spend the money by December 2026. After incorporating a $53 million transfer, staff set the adjusted spend target at $947 million; they reported about $811 million has been spent to date, leaving roughly $137 million still available to allocate before the deadline.
Commissioners pressed for additional breakdowns — including the share of lagging revenues as a percentage of the general fund and monthly sales-tax drivers — and staff said they would provide further detail in the next quarterly update. The commission did not take any formal fiscal actions beyond approving routine minutes and adjourning; staff said the next IRFC meeting is scheduled for April 29, 2026.
