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Consultant tells Avon Grove board preliminary enrollment study shows long-term declines and capacity to absorb program changes
Summary
Crabtree Rohrbaugh presented early findings showing 13 of the last 20 years had enrollment declines, several anomalous years, and varied class-size distributions; consultants said the district currently has sufficient seats but further analysis will refine projections and explore scenarios tied to facility usage.
An outside firm presenting to the Avon Grove School District told the board its preliminary enrollment and facilities analysis shows long-term variability with notable declines in many years but no clear evidence the district is over- or underbuilt.
Larry Lovato, an architect and educational planner with Crabtree Rohrbaugh, said the firm is using multiple projection models and will analyze pre-pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic windows to determine a best-fit baseline. "We look at historic enrollments, census data, housing starts and utilization rates," Lovato said, adding the team will also conduct principal interviews and examine anomalies in the data.
Lovato pointed to 20-year charts showing 13 of the last 20 years as declines, with an average change of about 31 students per year and five years with drops of more than 90 students: "There are anomalies we need to dig into to understand why those happened," he said.
The consultant discussed average class-size variation and the importance of separating "seats" from how rooms are actually used. He said the modeling will test three approaches — a 10-year window, five years before COVID and five years since COVID — and then propose a line of best fit for 5-10 year projections.
On capacity, Lovato said preliminary data show "no evidence that you've overbuilt, and there's no evidence that you've underbuilt," noting the district appears to have room to add programs depending on building usage. He emphasized that conclusions are early and that the firm will return with deeper analysis on March 10 and April 14.
Board members asked about how the firm's projections differ from Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) projections and whether models adjust for COVID birth-rate impacts. Lovato said PDE projections use a single method and did not adjust for COVID; Crabtree Rohrbaugh will model before/during/after COVID scenarios and incorporate other data sources such as ESRI and local housing-start information.
Lovato also flagged next steps: meetings with principals to chart actual room usage, digging into anomalies in specific years, and recommending a baseline projection for board consideration.
