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State data: Minnesota has modest EV fleet now but projected surcharge averages top $200
Summary
Driver and Vehicle Services and MnDOT reported that EVs remain under 1% of Minnesota’s vehicles, but registrations are growing quickly; DVS projected the average EV surcharge in 2026 at about $208.47 (median $191).
MnDOT and Driver and Vehicle Services (DVS) presented fleet and surcharge projections to the working group.
Peter Olson of MnDOT explained how the average gas-tax burden is calculated (vehicle miles traveled divided by fuel economy, multiplied by the gas tax rate) and said MnDOT’s working estimate used a fleet average of about 20 miles per gallon and average driver VMT to produce example annual gas-tax payments (roughly $228.28 under the inputs MnDOT used). Olson noted MnDOT is updating fleet fuel-economy estimates using VIN-level data and expects to publish revised numbers in late November.
Greg Loper of Driver and Vehicle Services provided an Oct. 22 snapshot: 57,489 battery-electric vehicles and 23,267 plug-in hybrids are registered in Minnesota, representing about 0.79% and combined ~1.02% of all registered vehicles. DVS projects the average EV surcharge for calendar year 2026 at $208.47 (median $191); projected PHEV surcharge averages $102.58 (median $89). Loper noted a substantial share of owners (about one-third of EV owners) would pay the minimum surcharge forecast, while higher-value vehicles would see much larger surcharge amounts.
Committee members and stakeholders raised distributional concerns: renters, apartment residents and users who cannot charge at home may rely more on public charging and could face higher costs if public charging is taxed; auto-dealer representatives flagged ‘‘sticker shock’’ for consumers facing much larger registration surcharges at purchase or renewal. MnDOT and DVS acknowledged these distributional concerns and said further modeling and communication plans are needed.
The working group did not adopt any changes to DVS or MnDOT processes during the meeting but asked agencies to continue refining estimates and provide additional scenario analyses at future meetings.
