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Alaska forecast: Department of Labor projects 3,000 jobs in 2026 amid decade‑long working‑age decline, economist says
Summary
Sam Tappan, an economist with the Alaska Department of Labor, told the Kenai Peninsula Borough finance committee that Alaska is forecast to add about 3,000 jobs (0.9%) in 2026 but faces a shrinking working‑age population (down about 34,000 since 2013) and 12 straight years of negative net migration.
Sam Tappan, an economist with the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, told the Kenai Peninsula Borough finance committee that Alaska is forecast to add about 3,000 jobs in 2026 — roughly 0.9% growth — even as the state grapples with longer‑term demographic challenges.
Tappan opened his presentation by comparing U.S. and Alaska employment trends, saying the United States fully recovered its COVID losses in 2022 while Alaska did not reach full recovery until 2024. "We reached our peak employment all the way back in 2015 at about 339,000 jobs," he said, and preliminary 2025 data still fall short of that peak.
He cited the 2020 COVID drop as a major shock — "statewide, Alaska lost 27,600 jobs, which was equal to 8.4% of all employment" — and showed how recoveries have varied by industry. Leisure and hospitality and trade/transportation/utilities,…
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