EPISD reports 46,244 students in snapshot, projects ~800-student annual decline and outlines retention strategies
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Summary
In an annual enrollment analysis presented March 3, EPISD reported a Snapshot total of 46,244 students, noted long-term birth-rate-driven declines and projected an average five-year decline of about 800 students per year; staff described recruitment efforts, military-focused outreach and a planned transfer policy to manage campus capacity.
El Paso Independent School District staff told trustees on March 3 that the district’s October snapshot count this year was about 46,244 students and that, using cohort-survival methods and recent birth-rate trends, the district expects an average decline of roughly 800 students per year over the next five years.
Presenter Miss Macias told the finance committee the district looks back 10–20 years to calculate cohort survival—tracking how many students in one grade move to the next—and that EPISD’s peak enrollment occurred around 2013–2014. “At Snapshot this year, we were about 46,244 students,” she said.
Why it matters: Enrollment drives state funding, and changes in student counts affect staffing, program funding and facility planning. The presenter said EPISD’s combined revenue per student is about $10,933, with roughly $6,200 coming from the state; continued enrollment decline will therefore have budgetary consequences unless offset by programmatic enrollment gains.
Key findings and responses: District analysis identified pockets of growth in specific ZIP codes (notably 79912 on the West Side, 79924 in the Northeast and 79930 centrally) and highlighted military-connected areas with higher churn. Staff reported about 10–11 charter schools inside EPISD boundaries enrolling roughly 5,000 students and said the district tracks how many in-boundary residents attend those charters as potential recruitment opportunities.
The presenter said EPISD currently has a net gain of students transferring in from outside district boundaries (5,390 students) and described multiple retention and recruitment efforts: campus program marketing (magnets and athletics), expanded full-day Pre-K3 slots targeted where need is greatest, a planned April enrollment fair on the military base to register incoming families, and improved exit surveys and record-request tracking to better understand outflows.
Trustees asked whether the numbers shown were projections or actuals; staff confirmed the snapshot is an actual count and that forward-looking figures are projections. Trustees also raised concerns about uneven campus capacity and development-driven enrollment shifts; staff said a grade-band/transfer regulation is being developed, the chief of schools will guide capacity-based transfer decisions, and a Hornado campus walkthrough with stakeholders is scheduled.
Operational notes and next steps: Staff will make the exit survey more user friendly to capture whether leaving students still live in-district, revise data dashboards to signal capacity constraints, and return with formal policy language on transfers in coming months. Registration for the next school year was confirmed for April 1.