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Poll shows Glendora bond‑extension concept clears Prop 39 threshold; consultant urges clear messaging on ‘no tax increase’ claim
Summary
A True North Research poll presented to the Glendora Unified board found 65% initial support for a bond extension that rose to 72% after clarifying it would not increase current tax rates; final support held at 66% after testing negative arguments. The consultant recommended explicit communications about the bond‑extension concept and readiness for a partisan election cycle.
Tim McLarney, president of True North Research, told the Glendora Unified School District board that a recent voter survey shows a bond‑extension measure could be feasible if the district and its supporters explain the extension concept clearly.
McLarney said the firm completed 527 likely‑November‑voter interviews (margin of error ±4.2 percentage points) and presented a legally compliant 75‑word ballot statement that described a bond extension. "At that initial ballot test, we had 65% of respondents tell us they would support this proposal," he said. After McLarneyexplained how a bond extension would maintain the current $33 per $100,000 assessed‑valuation tax rate rather than raise property taxes, measured support rose to 72%. When the poll included strong negative arguments opponents might use, support cooled to about 66% — still above the 55% Prop 39 threshold required for passage.
McLarney outlined the methodology: stratified, clustered random sampling of likely November voters, English and Spanish interviews, and multiple contact modes (email, text, telephone). He said the survey tested project priorities and arguments and found no "anchors" (projects that depress support); top priorities included HVAC upgrades, career and technical education facilities, basic repairs (roofs, plumbing, sewer lines) and STEM spaces. "Everything on the list is popular," he said.
Board members asked technical questions about sample composition and the margin of error. McLarney said the higher‑than‑expected completion rate (527 vs. the contracted 400) reduced sampling error and that weighting procedures adjust for modest skews in age or other demographics. He cautioned that the poll is a snapshot, not a guarantee of election results, and urged planners to prepare for partisan dynamics in the 2026 election cycle.
McLarney recommended two main communications priorities if the board moves forward: (1) emphasize the bond‑extension concept so voters understand the measure would not increase current tax rates, and (2) prepare for opposition messaging by building an independent, private campaign to advocate publicly for the measure during the election cycle.
The presentation prompted no board vote to place a measure on the ballot during this meeting. McLarney closed by noting timing and economic unknowns that could create headwinds and by offering to answer follow‑up questions as the district finalizes any proposal.
