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Greenville County Schools projects near-term enrollment dip, elementary cohorts expected to recover by late decade
Summary
A district presentation showed a post-2020 enrollment surge followed by recent declines; staff said cohort progression and increasing local births mean elementary enrollment should creep back up through 2030 but middle-school declines persist in the near term.
Drew, the district analyst leading the demographic portion of the 2026 long-range facilities plan, told the board that Greenville County population growth has continued since the 1980s and that county residents rose 2.2% from 2023–24—about 13,000 people—though district enrollment did not mirror that growth in the most recent year.
Drew said the county has seen year-over-year increases in adults aged 22–39, cohorts that historically produce the most births; county births have recently increased and 2025 recorded the highest total since 1988, he said. At the same time, the…
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