Economist warns of slow job growth but sees long-term opportunity for Edmond

Dr. Russell Evans delivered a roughly 10–12 minute economic outlook at the council’s Feb. 9 budget kickoff, framing national and Oklahoma trends that staff should consider when setting revenue assumptions.

Evans said the national economy ‘‘basically stalled out in the second half of last year,’’ with job creation weaker than needed to hold the unemployment rate steady. He noted that lower population growth and immigration reduce the number of new jobs required to stabilize unemployment, but current monthly job gains remain below historical norms.

He described a pattern where consumption and wealth have concentrated among high-income households while the bottom 80% of earners see spending roughly tracking inflation. Evans said that, taken together with revised data for 2024 showing weaker growth in Oklahoma, these patterns argue for conservative near-term revenue assumptions but point to long-run opportunities as the state continues urbanizing.

For Edmond specifically, Evans highlighted demographic shifts toward an older population and the impact of university enrollment changes on local sales-tax activity near campus. He recommended thinking proactively about economic identity and strategies to attract destination retail or other income-generating developments.

Evans concluded by offering to return as needed and by urging caution in reading the near-term outlook as permanent, calling it a snapshot that should inform conservative budgeting rather than definitive predictions.