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CDCR projects modest 5-year population decline; LAO says another closure could be feasible

Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 5 on Corrections, Public Safety, Judiciary, Labor and Transportation · March 12, 2026
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Summary

CDCR's fall 2025 projections show a 5–year institutional population decline of about 6.5% and a 10.4% drop for parole; LAO said conservative assumptions indicate the state could close an additional prison and urged CDCR to report deactivations promptly to the Legislature.

CDCR presented fall 2025 population projections to the Senate subcommittee showing a multi-year population decline and a nuanced analysis of how recent legislation will affect admissions and lengths of stay.

Kathy Jefferson, deputy director for CDCR's Office of Research, said the department's fall 2025 projections (through June 2030) estimate a net five-year decline of about 6.5% in institutional population and 10.4% for parole. CDCR said it is accounting for recent changes to qualifying offenses…

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