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CDCR projects modest 5-year population decline; LAO says another closure could be feasible

Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 5 on Corrections, Public Safety, Judiciary, Labor and Transportation · March 12, 2026

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Summary

CDCR's fall 2025 projections show a 5–year institutional population decline of about 6.5% and a 10.4% drop for parole; LAO said conservative assumptions indicate the state could close an additional prison and urged CDCR to report deactivations promptly to the Legislature.

CDCR presented fall 2025 population projections to the Senate subcommittee showing a multi-year population decline and a nuanced analysis of how recent legislation will affect admissions and lengths of stay.

Kathy Jefferson, deputy director for CDCR's Office of Research, said the department's fall 2025 projections (through June 2030) estimate a net five-year decline of about 6.5% in institutional population and 10.4% for parole. CDCR said it is accounting for recent changes to qualifying offenses under Prop 36 and estimating length of stay effects; for certain amended offenses CDCR's initial analysis of early cases showed increases in time served of roughly 1,000 days for some cohorts, a figure the department will refine with further data for the May Revision.

The Legislative Analyst's Office said, after conservative assumptions, the state could close an additional prison in the coming years and specifically identified the Correctional Training Facility in Soledad as a strong candidate for closure under LAO criteria. LAO cautioned against approving infrastructure projects at a prison that could be closed soon and recommended CDCR report in hearings when it implements capacity reductions, including formal notifications to staff and incarcerated people about yard deactivations.

CDCR and DOF told the committee the administration has not proposed additional full prison closures in the budget and that any naming of institutions is premature because closures follow Penal Code procedures and internal operational work; DOF said more detail will be provided in the May Revision population process.

Why it matters: Population projections inform decisions about closure timing, capital projects and operating budgets. LAO urged the Legislature to avoid funding upgrades at sites that may be deactivated and requested enhanced reporting on capacity changes.

Next steps: CDCR will submit updated projections for the May Revision; LAO recommended directional action and improved reporting if deactivations are underway.