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NASS January reports: U.S. corn, soybeans and cotton among highest production levels; winter wheat acres rise
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Summary
NASS released January crop production and December 1 grain stocks. The agency reported corn production near 14.9 billion bushels, soybeans at 4.37 billion bushels, cotton at 14.4 million bales and winter wheat planted acres up to 34.1 million; several crops ranked among the top four on record.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service released its January crop production and grain‑stocks estimates, reporting large U.S. crops and mixed stocks that will shape near‑term market expectations.
Patrick Doyle, chief of the NASS Pros branch, said the December operator survey “included just over 73,000 samples nationwide” and that NASS supplemented producer reports with roughly 7,900 off‑farm storage surveys, objective yield measurements and certified acreage from Farm Service Agency and RMA records. Those inputs underlie the agency’s January estimates.
The agency reported corn production “at just under 14,900,000,000 bushels,” a level Doyle said ranks as the fourth highest on record even though harvested acreage and yields shifted slightly from prior forecasts. Soybean production was forecast at 4,370,000,000 bushels, also the fourth highest on record, with a final yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. Cotton production was estimated at 14,400,000 bales, up 19.5% from 2023.
NASS also released December 1 grain stocks. Doyle said total all‑wheat stocks were 1,570,000,000 bushels, up 10.5% (about 149,000,000 bushels) from the prior year. Total corn stocks were “just over 12,000,000,000 bushels,” down roughly 97,000,000 bushels from 2023, with on‑farm stocks down 2.1% and off‑farm stocks up 1.6%. Soybean stocks were reported at just over 3,000,000,000 bushels, up about 99,000,000 bushels year over year.
Doyle gave brief summaries for numerous other crops: record canola planted and harvested acreage and record canola production (~4,800,000,000 pounds); mixed results for pulses and specialty oilseeds; barley down nearly 18%; and regional variability in sunflower and sorghum stocks. For citrus, he reported total orange production down about 250,000 boxes from the prior month and a 13.1% decline in grapefruit production from the previous season.
Why it matters: the January production and stock snapshots feed the marketing‑year balance sheets that traders, processors and policymakers use to estimate supply, demand and price outlooks for the year ahead. Doyle said the estimates are intended to match the official published record and that NASS will host a social media Q&A at 1:30 p.m. Eastern to answer follow‑up method and data questions.
NASS noted that Office of Management and Budget statistical policy limits public comment by policy‑making officials within 30 minutes of report release; the agency did not take public questions during the briefing and directed audiences to the published estimates for any discrepancy with the briefing slides.
The agency also listed upcoming reports, including cattle‑on‑feed, egg prices and annual livestock reports, and said the next crop production and cotton ginnings release is scheduled for mid‑February.
