State estimating conference projects tens of thousands fewer K–12 FTE; EDR cites 'chilling effects' from immigration policies

Amy Baker, coordinator for the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, told the PreK–12 Budget Subcommittee that the Education Estimating Conference adopted lower enrollment forecasts after identifying an unexpected, widespread decline in student participation.

Baker said the conference is established in law ("it is in chapter 216") and requires consensus among four principals (House, Senate, EDR and the Governor's office) to adopt forecasts. She described participants’ roles—school districts, the Department of Education and scholarship funding organizations (SFOs)—and said the conference conventionally produces a current‑year plus five‑year forecast that is posted on the EDR website for use across state agencies.

Regarding recent changes, Baker said the conference found a current‑year shortfall in several program areas: "we saw in the current year it was about 17,000 FTE lower than we were anticipating," she said, citing an especially noticeable decline in ESOL. After review the principals elected to assume the downshift persists through the forecast rather than treat it as a one‑time blip.

That decision cut the conference's prior projections substantially: Baker said publicly funded programs in the FEFP were about 46,000 FTE lower than the summer forecast for FY25–26, and the committee should plan for a 42,414.25 FTE reduction in the budgeting year FY26–27. She gave district counts, saying district FTE are projected to decline from 2,722,240 in FY26–27 to 2,671,699 in FY30–31.

Baker also flagged changes in private‑school scholarship funding: contributions through the Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program have fallen sharply since session, reducing dollars available to Scholarship Funding Organizations; as a result the forecasting work shows shifts toward expanded Family Empowerment Scholarship (FES) FTE, which Baker said are projected to grow from roughly 489,000 in FY26–27 to about 616,000 in FY30–31.

Members asked about data quality and process. Ranking Member Gant and Representative Nicks pressed Baker on timing, data collection and matching; Baker acknowledged ongoing challenges with scholarship reporting, payment data and student matching and said EDR had used ad hoc surveys previously to resolve specific questions. "The recalibration rules definitely need more work," she said.

Why it matters: The conference's adopted forecast is official information used across state government and will shape FY 2627 FEFP assumptions and district allocations. The reductions Baker described could change funding per district and shift how scholarship programs are funded within the FEFP framework.

Next step: Committee members will use the conference's adopted numbers as they begin building the FY 2627 preK–12 budget.