Lifetime Citizen Portal Access — AI Briefings, Alerts & Unlimited Follows
NASS February briefing: Argentina cuts and HPAI losses tighten some global and U.S. markets
Loading...
Summary
NASS and the World Agricultural Outlook Board reported Feb. revisions including a 3 million‑ton cut to Argentina soybeans and a 1 million‑ton cut to its corn crop, reduced global wheat and corn trade forecasts, and U.S. egg‑supply losses of about 23 million birds amid HPAI that have pushed New York egg prices above $8 per dozen.
Lance Houdig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board at the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), opened the Feb. production and advisory briefing and introduced presenters from USDA and the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Patrick Boyle (NASS) summarized the data sources used for February’s reports, noting enumerator measurements from more than 2,100 Florida citrus growers and that February adjustments were largely limited to Florida while other states’ figures were carried forward from last month.
Dr. Jekanowski, presenting World Agricultural Outlook Board analysis, said Argentina’s soybean production was reduced by 3 million metric tons this month and its corn estimate was cut by 1 million tons, both driven by a late‑season dry period and hotter‑than‑normal January conditions in major growing areas. He said those Southern Hemisphere cuts, plus reduced exports from several exporters, tightened global ending stocks and trimmed global trade forecasts for wheat and corn.
On wheat, global exports were reduced by about 3 million metric tons this month with downward revisions for the EU, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey; China’s wheat import forecast was lowered by 2.5 million tons to 8 million, the lowest in five years. The U.S. wheat balance was adjusted for recent flour‑milling data with domestic food use raised by 4 million bushels.
For rice, the briefing raised India’s exports to roughly 22 million metric tons (near record levels), raised some Chinese import assumptions, and pushed U.S. ending stocks to the highest level in about a decade—actions that contributed to a modest downward movement in long‑grain season average rice prices.
On livestock and poultry, Jekanowski said U.S. beef production forecasts were raised reflecting larger calf crops and higher placements, and that Mexican beef imports have resumed under new protocols limited to two ports of entry. Pork and broiler export forecasts were trimmed slightly; turkey production was cut to reflect recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) culling.
“Even with no additional cases of HPAI for the rest of the year, we would see year over year reductions in supplies,” Jekanowski said, noting aggregated losses of about 19.6 million birds in January and roughly 3.7 million in February to date—about 23 million birds lost from a flock of just over 300 million—conditions that helped push the New York daily egg price above $8 per dozen.
Dairy forecasts were modestly tightened: 2024’s final all‑milk price was reported at $22.61 per hundredweight, and 2025 class‑price changes complicate year‑to‑year comparisons; NASS and USDA adjusted milk production, imports and domestic use based on recent milk‑production and cattle reports.
Other adjustments included a small raise to China’s cotton production (about 3.7 million bales) that tightened global stocks, and sugar revisions that lowered U.S. cane production at the current crop year (mainly Florida) while trimming Mexico’s production forecast by about 235,000 metric tons because of drought.
Why it matters: the Southern Hemisphere production downgrades, combined with trade‑side revisions and poultry losses from HPAI, narrow some global supplies and can affect U.S. growers and market prices for feed, oilseeds, cotton and eggs. NASS emphasized that the official published estimates remain the authoritative record and encouraged users to consult the full reports on the NASS website and the WASDE for detailed tables and assumptions.
The briefing closed with reminders about upcoming NASS reports (farms and land, cattle on feed, crop values, cotton ginnings) and outreach events; NASS said it will return in March for the next crop production and cotton ginning update.
