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Idaho labor market looks healthy, state economists tell revenue committee
Summary
State labor economists told the committee that Idaho’s labor market remains strong with low unemployment (~3.7%) and steady job growth; the Department of Labor forecasts moderate, sustainable job additions rather than the 'superheated' growth seen in 2022.
Idaho’s labor market shows continued strength and moderation rather than collapse, state labor economists told the revenue assessment committee.
Sam Wolkenpauer, an economist at the Idaho Department of Labor, said the state’s unemployment rate has averaged in a structurally low range since 2016 and remains near 3.7 percent. "Idaho's labor market is not showing signs of distress — unemployment is low, hiring continues and wage growth is robust," Wolkenpauer said.
Wolkenpauer and other presenters told lawmakers that the 2022 'superheated' labor market — when job postings greatly outnumbered job seekers — has given way to a more balanced condition. The department’s two‑year labor forecast calls for roughly 1.2 percent annual employment growth and continued gains in most industries, with health care and construction among the larger contributors.
Private economist Robert Spendlove of Zions Bank reinforced the message that Idaho’s region remains relatively resilient compared with national trends. "While national job growth has slowed, Idaho continues to add jobs and the labor market is more balanced than it was in 2022," Spendlove said.
Committee members asked for more granular data on wage growth and sectoral risk; Wolkenpauer offered to follow up with the committee on particular indicators. The labor evidence was presented to help members judge whether revenue changes are cyclical (timing) or structural for multi‑year budgeting.
Next steps: Committee members will fold labor and other forecasts into their individual revenue projections due by noon tomorrow, after which the committee will aggregate results and vote on a recommended projection at a reconvened meeting.
