Carrollton finance director lays out five‑year budget forecast and risks

Melissa Everett, Carrollton’s director of finance, presented a five‑year forecast of the general and utility funds, outlining revenue assumptions, known uncertainties and the fiscal choices the council will face as it moves toward the FY2027 budget.

Everett said the forecast incorporates current policy choices and known factors: "This is a 5 year forecast," she told council, and she highlighted major risks including potential state legislation that might cap property‑tax growth, unfunded mandates, and a litigation risk on sales‑tax sourcing for which staff modeled a $4 million loss.

The forecast shows Carrollton meeting recurring revenue targets in the near term, with an expected one‑time excess available for programming next year (an estimate of about $1.9 million); further out, Everett said that continued cost increases — including a 70% electricity increase expected in 2027 tied to expiring contracts and a 17% rise in sewer treatment costs driven by regional debt and TCEQ requirements — combined with assumed legislative changes could produce a recurring deficit by 2029.

Council discussion focused on how economic development and planned projects factor into the model and on options staff will present during the formal budget process. Everett said staff would refine numbers and return with departmental business plans and additional briefings; she also noted legal posting requirements that could affect the schedule for budget hearings.

Next steps: Staff will provide further departmental briefings, refine the forecast ahead of the August budget work session and present formal proposed budgets in the fall.