Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Enrollment Projections topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Demographer: Roseville Joint Union High enrollment rising — about 2,000 more students projected over coming decade
Summary
Wolpert demographer Andrew Bishop told the Roseville Joint Union High School District board that the district’s current enrollment of roughly 11,300 is likely to grow by about 1,800–2,200 students in the next 7–10 years, driven by thousands of housing units in the pipeline and higher student yields in some neighborhoods.
Andrew Bishop, a demographer from Wolpert, told the Roseville Joint Union High School District board that the district’s enrollment — about 11,299 students using November data — is likely to grow substantially as new housing comes online.
Bishop walked trustees through his methodology, which uses four years of student-cohort survival data, historic births by ZIP code, and student-generation rates tied to new residential construction. He said the district has more than 7,000 single-family and roughly 4,300 multifamily units in the pipeline and that those projects are the primary drivers behind the projected growth.
“Those projects in the pipeline are really what’s going to drive the projected enrollment growth,” Bishop said, noting that he matches student addresses to newly constructed units to calculate yield rates.
Board members pressed Bishop on assumptions and local accuracy. Trustees asked whether the “remaining units” totals include units already under construction (Bishop: yes) and requested additional breakdowns at the attendance-boundary and specific-plan level to test whether certain neighborhoods — particularly West Park — generate more students than districtwide averages.
Trustees said prior projections had underestimated some local growth, and several asked Bishop to supply localized generation rates for the largest recent developments and a comparison to last year’s projections so the board can evaluate historical accuracy.
Joe Landon, assistant superintendent, said staff will work with Bishop to provide attendance-boundary dissections and updated, dated reports for board review. Board members discussed holding a workshop in February or March to review boundary scenarios and the projection details.
Why it matters: The district’s capital planning, attendance-boundary decisions and timing for new facilities depend on enrollment projections. Trustees singled out West Park as an attendance boundary likely to see the largest near-term increases and sought more granular data before making boundary or facility decisions.
What’s next: Bishop said he will provide additional boundary-level analyses, a comparison with last year’s projections, and a footnote clarifying which unit counts include under-construction totals. The board indicated it plans a workshop to review attendance-boundary scenarios and next steps.
