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Gilroy Unified projects stable enrollment but flags attendance drop that affects budget
Summary
Assistant Superintendent and CBO Alvaro Meza told the joint meeting that GUSD expects enrollment to hold near 10,000 over five years but warned that a 1 percentage‑point drop in average daily attendance equals roughly $1 million in ongoing revenue.
Gilroy Unified’s assistant superintendent and chief business officer, Alvaro Meza, presented updated enrollment projections and budget implications to the joint Gilroy City Council and school board.
Meza said California’s school‑age population is declining overall and that his forecasts incorporate two trajectories: a conservative set for budgeting and staffing and a more moderate set for facilities planning. Based on current projections, Meza said the district expects enrollment near 10,000 students over the next five years and does not anticipate school closures in that horizon.
Meza emphasized that average daily attendance (ADA) matters more than raw enrollment for funding. “Attendance dropped from the mid‑90s to around 92% this year,” he said, and noted that “a 1% change in average daily attendance for us is $1,000,000 of ongoing revenue.”
The district uses conservative ADA assumptions for budget planning and monitors residential development with city planning to update projections annually. Meza described two projection tracks: one for budgeting and staffing (conservative) and one for facilities planning (moderate), and said the district reviews these numbers each January.
Board and council members asked clarifying questions about how housing production feeds student projections and about what the district is doing to increase attendance; Meza said the district will continue to track dwellings coming online and update the board next January.
Next steps: Meza said the district will review attendance strategies and bring updated data during the next budget cycle; staff will continue annual demographic reviews to inform any future facilities or closure considerations.
