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Sequoia Union study finds long‑term enrollment decline; feeder districts projected to lose 16%
Summary
District staff previewed a demographer's report showing combined feeder K–8 enrollment down about 16% since 2016, a 19.5% drop in the under‑5 population (2010–2020) and lower transition rates into the high school district, all of which staff said contribute to a shrinking student pool for TIDE and other schools.
Sequoia Union High School District staff told parents that a new enrollment study shows sustained declines across the district's feeder districts and projected continued decreases in student counts.
"The enrollment study ... shows a projected total loss of 16% for feeder districts," Naomi Hunter, the district's public information officer, said in the webinar previewing a demographer's report to be formally presented to the board the next day. Hunter said the 2025 study includes charter schools and students placed at nonpublic schools, so direct comparisons with older studies require care.
Hunter highlighted demographic drivers: combined K–8 feeder enrollment is down about 16% since the 2016–17 school year, the under‑5 population fell roughly 19.5% between 2010 and 2020, and transition rates into Sequoia Union declined approximately 7–9% annually. She said the decline is regional and noted variability across feeder districts.
Why it matters: Hunter said fewer young children and lower feeder enrollment reduce the pool of students available to Sequoia Union high schools and to small specialty sites such as TIDE, increasing recruitment pressures districtwide. She showed maps of student residences and school locations that staff said illustrate shifting feeder patterns and a widening distribution of student origins, including increased enrollment from charter schools.
What's next: the district will present the full demographer report at the upcoming board meeting; staff recommended community members review the full slides and provide input via the district's TIDE page and the webinar feedback form.
No vote or formal board action took place during the webinar.
