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Polling shows Murrieta voters likely to back bond extension, consultant says
Summary
A district‑commissioned survey of 620 likely November voters found initial support of 63% for a proposed bond concept that rose to 73% after consultants explained it as a bond extension; final testing of negative arguments left support near 60%, above the 55% Prop 39 threshold, True North Research reported to the board.
Tim McLarney, president of True North Research, told the Murrieta Valley Unified School District Board of Education that a 620‑interview survey gives the district a runway to place a Prop 39 bond extension on the November 2026 ballot. "We walked back in the door with 620," McLarney said, describing a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
McLarney said the initial 75‑word ballot test produced 63% support and 26% opposition. After interviewers explained that the proposal was a bond extension "without increasing current tax rates," support rose to 73%. "Once you explain the basics of a bond extension ... we see support at 73%," he said. When the poll tested a set of negative arguments, support dropped by roughly 10 points to about 60% — still five points above the 55% threshold required for a Prop 39 bond.
Darren Daniels, deputy superintendent, introduced the presentation and said the research is intended to guide the board on feasibility and messaging. Joy Coomer of Team Civics outlined the calendar for placing a measure on the ballot, noting the board would need to take action by Aug. 7 to qualify for November 2026 and that any campaign supporting passage must be privately funded. "This is not district funded," Coomer said. "This is private dollars, private individuals who would go out and [campaign]."
McLarney emphasized two communication priorities: explaining the bond‑extension concept clearly to voters and preparing to respond to common negative arguments about timing, interest rates and tax pressure. He also presented project tiers voters favored most, naming basic repairs, air conditioning/HVAC upgrades and CTE/STEM investments as high‑priority items.
The consultant cautioned that polling shows a snapshot of current sentiment, not a guarantee on election day. "What it's saying is here's where we are today," McLarney said. The board did not vote on placing a measure on the ballot at the meeting; members heard the feasibility results and discussed next steps and community outreach.
