Poll shows narrow path for $750M San Ramon Valley school bond; consultants recommend more vetting and outreach

Consultants for the San Ramon Valley Unified School District told trustees that a proposed $750 million general obligation bond could clear the 55% Prop. 39 threshold but only with extensive public vetting and outreach.

"Initial support for a potential bond measure is just short of the 55% threshold, but support increases once voters have more information about the need," said Jessica Polsky of EMC Research, summarizing a December survey of 600 likely voters. Polsky said voters rated the district and its buildings highly but were sensitive to tax‑increase messaging. The survey showed support moving from about 52% initially to 58% after informational messages about matching state funds and protections that the bond would not raise current tax rates.

Jeremy Hauser of TeamCivics, the district’s consultant on ballot measures, said the board should not make a decision tonight but should advance the next phase of vetting if trustees wish to continue exploration. "Decision is not gonna be made tonight," Hauser said, outlining a four‑phase path that includes message refinement, targeted stakeholder engagement and, if warranted, a privately funded get‑out‑the‑vote effort.

Trustees and members of the public pressed consultants on the proposed size of the measure and the district’s enrollment trends. A public commenter warned the $750 million figure would exceed the total of previous measures and urged caution given declining enrollment. Board members asked whether bond measures face crowded ballots in November and how overlapping tax measures might affect passage; consultants said voters usually vote values rather than pick measures, but tax fatigue can depress margins.

Hauser and Polsky described message strategies that performed best in the poll: explaining that the bond would qualify the district for state matching funds, that it would update classrooms for career technical education and STEM, and that it would not increase tax rates beyond current levels. Polsky said items rated most important to voters were qualifying for matching funds, updating job‑training classrooms, repairing wiring and plumbing, and improving safety.

Trustees expressed mixed reactions: some emphasized the need for careful vetting and community education, while others said the numbers indicate a path to success if the district invests time to build public understanding. With guidance from consultants, the board gave staff consensus to continue exploration and vetting work rather than placing a resolution on the ballot immediately.