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Demographer: San Ramon Valley Unified enrollment likely to fall about 16% over next decade
Summary
MGT Impact Solutions told the board the district can expect roughly a 16% decline in resident students over 10 years — from about 27,800 to 23,300 — driven primarily by falling birth rates and lower student yields from multifamily and transit‑oriented development.
Isaac Johnson, a director with MGT Impact Solutions, told the San Ramon Valley Unified School District board that the district should plan for sustained enrollment declines driven mainly by falling birth rates and lower student yields from new housing.
“We expect about a 16% decline over the next 10 years, going from roughly 27,800 students to about 23,300 students,” Johnson said, summarizing the firm’s district‑wide projection and the methodology used to reach it.
Johnson explained the forecast combines spatial attendance‑area data, local birth…
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