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Demographer: San Ramon Valley Unified enrollment likely to fall about 16% over next decade
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Summary
MGT Impact Solutions told the board the district can expect roughly a 16% decline in resident students over 10 years — from about 27,800 to 23,300 — driven primarily by falling birth rates and lower student yields from multifamily and transit‑oriented development.
Isaac Johnson, a director with MGT Impact Solutions, told the San Ramon Valley Unified School District board that the district should plan for sustained enrollment declines driven mainly by falling birth rates and lower student yields from new housing.
“We expect about a 16% decline over the next 10 years, going from roughly 27,800 students to about 23,300 students,” Johnson said, summarizing the firm’s district‑wide projection and the methodology used to reach it.
Johnson explained the forecast combines spatial attendance‑area data, local birth trends, mobility and student‑yield factors for different housing types. Single‑family homes, he said, yield many more students than multifamily or transit‑oriented development; the report assumes about 70 students per 100 single‑family units, roughly 0.47 students per multifamily unit, and under 20 students per 100 transit‑oriented units.
Assistant Superintendent of Business Operations Danny Homan said the district’s facilities and development data have been shared with MGT and will be used to layer the projections into a revised facilities plan. “We are overlaying that with the facilities plan that was done in 2024,” Homan said, and staff will return to the board with an action plan that maps projected growth and decline to specific school sites.
Board members pressed on local development assumptions. Johnson pointed to pockets of growth — Greenbrook, Golden View and Rancho Leona Hills were cited as examples — but said those gains won’t offset the statewide and national trend of smaller incoming kindergarten cohorts.
The district’s projections also account for roughly 5,000 planned housing units in the projection window; MGT concluded the student yield from those projects would produce localized increases but not enough to reverse the overall decline. Johnson cautioned that reversing the trend would require long‑term demographic change in birth rates that would not materialize quickly.
Next steps: staff said it will incorporate the demographer’s data into an updated facilities master plan and return to the board with recommendations on site‑level responses such as boundary adjustments, shared staffing models or other operational changes.
