Consultants say Santa Barbara air service has rebounded strongly; Chicago and San Diego routes expected
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Summary
Campbell Hill Aviation Group told the commission Santa Barbara capacity is up sharply versus 2019, carriers serving the airport are growing, and United and Alaska will add Chicago and San Diego nonstop service in coming months; presenters highlighted data on "leakage" and suggested the market can absorb additional capacity.
Campbell Hill Aviation Group briefed the Santa Barbara Airport Commission on March 18, saying the local market has outpaced national growth and will gain new nonstop service to Chicago and San Diego.
"Our capacity here in Santa Barbara is up 96% for the '26 versus 2019," Kevin Shore, vice president with Campbell Hill, told commissioners. He said load factors remain strong (commonly in the mid- to high-70s percent range), which helps airlines sustain higher fares even on slightly less than full aircraft.
Rohan Sheff, Campbell Hill, explained broader U.S. trends, including growth among legacy carriers and a contraction in the ultra-low-cost segment driven largely by Spirits retrenchment. He said airline decisions are shaped by aircraft deliveries, fleet type, and how carriers match aircraft to routes.
Shore and Sheff laid out target markets for future nonstop service and showed cell-phone "mobilelytics" data the airport uses to estimate "leakage" of passengers to other airports; the consultants said that data supports outreach to carriers for routes such as San Diego, Chicago and other longer-haul markets. Shore said United will begin daily Chicago OHare service in April on a MAX 8, and Alaska will start San Diego service next month, with Southwest scheduled for San Diego service in August.
Commissioners questioned aircraft capability, the Allegiant/Sun Country merger (Sheff: acquisition announced; regulatory review ongoing), and the limits on Santa Barbaras ability to handle international flights in the absence of an on-site customs facility (Hastert noted Canadian preclearance as a potential work-around for certain routes). The presentation concluded with commissioners praising the data-driven approach and the airports efforts to market new service.
The commission received the presentation for information and did not take further action.
