NASS: 2026 prospective plantings near 310 million acres; corn down, soy up; total wheat plantings hit multi-decade low if realized
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Summary
The National Agricultural Statistics Service said its March Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports estimate nearly 310 million acres for 2026 principal crops, a small national decline driven by lower corn acreage and continued wheat declines; NASS also reported higher March 1 corn and soybean stocks year-over-year.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service released March Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks estimates showing the planted principal crops total for 2026 at nearly 310,000,000 acres, modestly lower than 2025, NASS staff said at a briefing.
"The planted principal crops total for 2026 is estimated at nearly 310,000,000 acres," said Anthony Perleman, acting chief of a NASS unit, summarizing the March survey results. He noted the March estimate is preliminary and that NASS will resurvey in June to update planted acreage once most fieldwork is complete.
The report attributes its acreage estimates to two surveys: a March agricultural (farmer-reported) survey with a sample of nearly 74,000 operations (data collected Feb. 27–Mar. 17) and an all-farm grain stock survey of roughly 7,800 commercial facilities (data collected Feb. 28–Mar. 19), Perleman said.
Key planting estimates included an expected U.S. corn planted area of 95,300,000 acres (down 3.5%, or about 3,450,000 acres, from 2025) and soybean planted acreage of 84,700,000 acres (up 4.3%, or about 3,490,000 acres). Cotton planted acreage was estimated at 9,640,000 acres (up 3.9%), while winter wheat planted area was revised to 32,400,000 acres (down 1.8% from the January estimate and down 2.2% year-over-year). Perleman said the combined U.S. total for corn and soybeans is effectively unchanged from 2025; the transcript contains a garbled numeric figure for the combined total and NASS materials should be consulted for the exact published number.
Perleman highlighted regional shifts: planted corn acreage was down or unchanged in 37 of 48 estimating states, with decreases of 300,000 acres or more expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. He also said several Northeastern states were projected to set record-low planted totals if realized.
On wheat, Perleman said that, if current March planting intentions hold, total U.S. wheat planted acreage (winter, other spring and durum) would be the lowest on record since 1919. "This would represent the lowest planted area on record since records began in 1919," he said.
NASS also released March 1 grain stocks: all-wheat stocks were reported at 1,300,000,000 bushels (up 5.1% year-over-year) with on-farm stocks down 2.8% and off-farm stocks up 7.8%. Corn stocks on March 1 were estimated at 9,020,000,000 bushels (up 10.8% y/y), with on-farm stocks up 20.7% and all-farm stocks down 1.5%. Soybean stocks were reported at 2,100,000,000 bushels (up 10.1% y/y), with on-farm stocks up 2.7% and all-farm stocks up 16.5%.
Perleman summarized rice stocks as March 1 rough rice totaling 104,000,100 hundredweight (up 2.9% from March 2025), with long-grain varieties comprising 67% of rough-rice stocks. He also reviewed other commodity stock changes for barley, durum, oats, sorghum and sunflowers.
Perleman said most NASS March estimates fell within industry ranges of expectation, though some figures (corn, soybeans, cotton) were higher or lower than many private forecasts. He stressed the provisional nature of March acreage intentions and the historical tendency for March-to-final revisions to be small in typical years, while noting that extreme weather can produce large changes.
NASS staff closed the briefing with a schedule of upcoming releases and events, including the weekly national crop-progress report starting April 6, a crop production historic track records report on April 8, the next crop production report on April 9, catalog feed on April 17 and agricultural prices on April 30. Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, will join a NASS "stat chat" on social media at 1:30 p.m. Eastern to take questions about the numbers.
The March Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports are the official NASS estimates; the briefing repeated NASS's standard guidance that the official published estimates are the authoritative record in case of discrepancies with the livestream presentation.
