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Richland 1 forecast: enrollment largely stable over next decade despite major housing projects
Summary
MGT consultants told the Richland 1 School Board on March 31 that districtwide enrollment is projected to remain largely stable over the next 5–10 years, with localized increases tied to nearly 7,600 planned housing units; consultants cautioned that birth-rate declines and utilization imbalances will require planning.
At a March 31 Richland 1 School Board work session, consultants from MGT told board members that districtwide student enrollment is expected to stay roughly stable over the next decade while pockets of residential development will produce localized increases.
"There was a decrease of 535 students from 2024," Cameron Arsenault, a demographer with MGT, said during the presentation, summarizing recent enrollment trends the study used as its baseline. Using one year of current student data and three years of historical records, MGT geocoded students into 399 study areas and ran forecasts at that granular level, Arsenault said.
The consultants stressed that small shifts in birth rates and mobility can offset or amplify development-driven growth. Arsenault said…
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