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Treasurer warns of global oil shocks and higher yields; county portfolio and budget planning remain conservative

Deschutes County Board of Commissioners ยท March 31, 2026

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Summary

County Treasurer Bill Cooney told the board international hostilities have pushed oil above $120/barrel in market reporting and driven Treasury yields higher; he reported county portfolio balances and urged awareness of macro risks as the county finalizes budgets.

Treasurer Bill Cooney (S2) briefed the board on national and regional economic conditions and the countys investment position.

Cooney tied recent oil-price volatility to military activity affecting the Strait of Hormuz and said that market disruption has widened price swings and contributed to higher energy costs that could depress consumer spending. He noted the Federal Reserve held policy rates steady after its most recent meeting and that the 10-year Treasury yield had moved to roughly 4.35%, influencing mortgage and borrowing costs. Cooney also summarized local housing and revenue indicators: Redmond-area median sale prices and permit activity showed bumpiness, and the countys portfolio balance stood at about $383.6 million at the end of the month, bolstered by incoming property-tax receipts.

Cooney said county investment practice remains conservative: the portfolio average maturity is near 1.36 years and staff made targeted investments to spread maturities. He warned that contingency planning and attention to possible stagflation risks were prudent given higher energy costs and global volatility.

In other fiscal business CFO Robert Tinto (S4) outlined the FY27 budget schedule and noted modest projections: general fund revenues and expenditures are largely on target, FTE counts have declined from 1,250 to about 1,218 and the county will hold a May work session to review the proposed budget. TLT (transient lodging tax) revenue is up about 3% year-to-date compared with FY25 but remains below earlier stronger months; staff announced an April 6 work session on TLT and House Bill 4148 implications.

Next steps: treasurer and budget staff will continue to monitor market volatility, finalize portfolio cash-flow plans and proceed through the budget timeline with departmental meetings and the May review sessions.