Joint fiscal office: March fuel‑tax receipts largely made up February shortfall; year‑to‑date slightly under forecast
Loading...
Summary
The joint fiscal office reported March gas and diesel receipts rose above forecast, largely offsetting a February reporting shortfall, but year‑to‑date motor vehicle purchase and use receipts lag forecast by about $1.7 million. Staff said June true‑up and July forecast will determine whether further budget adjustments are needed.
Logan, a joint fiscal office analyst, told the committee on April 8 that March gas and diesel receipts were “very much above forecast,” largely because reporting and processing timing shifted some February collections into March.
The presentation showed February gas and diesel taxes were significantly below forecast because a processing date fell on a weekend during a short month; that portion of revenue appeared in March instead. Logan said, “if you take the two together, we are sort of right on,” but cautioned that category reallocations and processing errors complicate month‑to‑month interpretation.
Year‑to‑date, Logan said motor vehicle purchase and use receipts were underperforming: “we're almost 6% below” in that category and “about $1,700,000 below forecast, 2.3%.” He explained a prior misallocation moved a fee out of motor vehicle fees into other fees and taxes, which will persist in reporting and make the two categories look like they diverged even though their combined total is roughly in line with expectations.
Committee members pressed for clearer annual context. One asked for an added column showing the FY26 year‑end target; Logan agreed to add annual target figures so members can see whether monthly results are on a path to meet the forecast. Members noted the three‑month snapshot shows roughly $1.6 million behind the prior year and target in aggregate over the quarter.
The analyst emphasized the limits of monthly analysis and pointed to the June true‑up: schedule twos and other end‑of‑year adjustments are finalized in June, and the economists’ July forecast update will determine whether a formal rescission plan or other budget moves are needed. As Logan put it, “we won't know what the actual decrease is until we get to June.”
Next steps: staff will add year‑end target columns to the posted summaries and the committee will monitor receipts through May before drawing conclusions; the July forecast and June reconciliation will be decisive for any required fiscal adjustments.
