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Consultant: bond polling shows initial 63% support but final test at the 55% Prop 39 threshold; lower tax rate and targeted communications recommended
Summary
True North Research reported 63% initial support for a $98 million, $45-per-$100,000 bond concept; after testing price sensitivity and negative arguments support cooled to roughly 55%, a borderline result that the consultant called a "qualified yes" and recommended price reductions and an active outreach campaign.
Dr. Tim McClarny, president of True North Research, presented results of a bond feasibility survey the firm conducted for Los Banos Unified. The poll tested language for a proposed $98 million Prop 39 school bond (described in the survey at $45 per $100,000 of assessed value) and various project uses, tax-rate scenarios and positive and negative arguments.
McClarny said the initial 75-word ballot statement produced 63% yes, 26% no and the remainder undecided. "That puts you about 8 points above the 55% threshold for a Prop 39 bond on the initial test," he…
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