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Consultant: bond polling shows initial 63% support but final test at the 55% Prop 39 threshold; lower tax rate and targeted communications recommended
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Summary
True North Research reported 63% initial support for a $98 million, $45-per-$100,000 bond concept; after testing price sensitivity and negative arguments support cooled to roughly 55%, a borderline result that the consultant called a "qualified yes" and recommended price reductions and an active outreach campaign.
Dr. Tim McClarny, president of True North Research, presented results of a bond feasibility survey the firm conducted for Los Banos Unified. The poll tested language for a proposed $98 million Prop 39 school bond (described in the survey at $45 per $100,000 of assessed value) and various project uses, tax-rate scenarios and positive and negative arguments.
McClarny said the initial 75-word ballot statement produced 63% yes, 26% no and the remainder undecided. "That puts you about 8 points above the 55% threshold for a Prop 39 bond on the initial test," he said. When asked to focus solely on the $45 per $100,000 tax rate, support dropped (48% yes); when the same cost was presented as a typical homeowner average of $138 per year, support rose to 55%.
After presenting detailed project uses and testing negative arguments that emphasized economic strain, the final tested support settled at approximately 55% — on the cusp of success. McClarny described the result as a "qualified yes," saying there is a path to success but it will require adjustments and robust communications.
Key consultant recommendations the board heard included lowering the proposed tax rate to make the measure feel more affordable, emphasizing projects that resonate most with voters (bringing older facilities up to code, removing hazardous materials, and CTE/STEM/technology investments), and investing in a coordinated district information campaign plus an independent, volunteer-led field campaign.
Board members asked about timing and turnout trade-offs for a November 2026 vote versus waiting for a presidential turnout in 2028. McClarny said higher‑turnout presidential elections typically bring a different voter mix that can be more favorable for school measures but warned of crowded ballots and unpredictable future economic conditions. He noted that the polling was a snapshot and recommended caution in pricing and careful community engagement.
The board discussed but did not vote on placing a bond on the ballot during the meeting. Separately, a communications services contract with a consultant (Clifford Moss) was pulled for later consideration after trustees expressed unease about authorizing communications work before the board decides whether to proceed.
