Poll shows Laguna Beach voters likely to pass an $83 million bond extension; board discusses next steps

Dr. Tibba Clarny of True North Research told the Laguna Beach Unified School District board on April 9 that a bond extension pitched in a 75‑word ballot statement tested at 59% support in an initial ballot test and rose to 66% once the poll explained it would be a tax‑rate extension rather than a new tax.

"At the initial ballot test, we had 59% of respondents say that they would support this proposal," Dr. Clarny said. After explaining the bond‑extension concept, she added, "support jumps up to 66%." The firm reported an interim test at 70% and, after testing a series of negative arguments, a finished test of 64% — all above the 55% threshold required for passage under California's Proposition 39 rules.

Why it matters: the poll was designed to simulate the information and arguments voters would hear in an election. Dr. Clarny said the study surveyed 547 likely November…