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Lakeshore projection shows modest enrollment decline; district cites statewide trend
Summary
District officials presented 10-year historical enrollment data (current fall count 2,584) and compared projection methods, telling the board that Michigan Alliance method 5 yields a moderate decline over the next several years and that declining enrollment is a statewide phenomenon affecting many districts.
District officials told the Lakeshore School Board on April 13 that enrollment is trending down in line with statewide patterns and presented multiple projection models to guide planning.
"For this fall count, we were at 2,584," Tracy Althouse said while reviewing 10 years of fall-count data and current staff FTE. Althouse explained the district used both Munetrix and Michigan Alliance projection methods this year; the board heard that Michigan Alliance provides five methods and the district relied on method 5 (an average of four methods) as a middle estimate.
Althouse described methodological differences: Munetrix relies in part on birth rates, while Michigan Alliance now emphasizes smooth-growth and weighted persistency rates for kindergarten through 12th grade, adjusting for school-of-choice movements and demographic shifts. She told the board that method 5 produced a projected district count near 2,496 in some scenarios over the next several years, while short-term counts for 2026–27 were estimated near 2,577 to 2,577 depending on the model.
Board members asked whether the trend was regional; Althouse said the decline mirrors the county and state, noting roughly 86 percent of Michigan districts face declining enrollment. Board members thanked Althouse for presenting multiple models to give the district a range of likely outcomes and asked staff to produce internal projections using returned enrollment forms and class selections for a third projection to refine planning for 2026–27.
The enrollment briefing framed subsequent discussions about staffing, class sections and bond-project prioritization. District leaders said they will return with updated counts as families complete Schools of Choice applications and enrollment confirmations.
