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District projects 20% enrollment drop and launches Sustainable Schools Advisory to plan for consolidation
Summary
A district demographer projected enrollment falling from roughly 15,690 students in 2025 to about 12,600 by 2032; the board approved launching a Sustainable Schools Advisory to recommend school-organization scenarios and an Aspiring Higher report recommended standardizing high-school pathways to close equity gaps.
A demographer's projection and consultant reports prompted the Pajaro Valley Unified School District to begin a districtwide planning process to align facilities, grade configurations and programs to shrinking enrollment.
Cameron Arsenault of MGT presented a resident-student forecast showing a projected decline from roughly 15,690 students in 2025 to about 12,600 by 2032 — a drop of roughly 20 percent. Arsenault attributed the decline to lower birth rates, limited near-term housing growth and aging households in the district service area, noting nine active or planned housing projects totaling about 457 units that would have modest impact on the forecast. (Speaker: Cameron Arsenault)
In response, Chief Business Officer Gerardo Castillo proposed a Sustainable Schools Advisory (SSA), a 19-member community group with staff support to produce options and a preferred recommendation by November 18, 2026. Castillo said the advisory will weigh equity, program quality, transportation and operational feasibility and present 2–3 scenarios plus a preferred plan for board consideration. (Speaker: Gerardo Castillo)
Separately, an Aspiring Higher consultant team reported on college-and-career readiness at the district's three comprehensive high schools and found strong pockets of CTE and AP opportunities but inconsistent access across sites. The study flagged a ninth-grade access gap (courses that make students A–G eligible) and high use of credit-recovery: in one school roughly 68 percent of graduates used credit recovery to complete requirements. The consultants recommended standardizing course sequencing, strengthening counseling touchpoints and aligning master schedules so students at any comprehensive high school have comparable pathways and opportunities. (Speaker: Chris Evans/Aspiring Higher)
Trustees and community members discussed possible strategies to attract and retain students — suggestions included expanding arts, career-technical education and specialty programs that can draw families, exploring parcel-tax revenue options and ensuring equity in program access. The board agreed to move forward with the SSA setup and community recruitment process while preserving public engagement and transparency.
Next steps: SSA roster to be finalized in April (application process to be posted); first SSA meeting planned in mid-April; staff to post materials and record meetings for public review.
