County outlines potential $400M+ impact from federal HR 1 and readies advocacy push
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Summary
County staff told the board that federal HR 1 could strip health and nutrition benefits and impose major costs on the local safety net, estimating roughly 77,000 people could lose medical coverage and a $400M+ hit to the Ventura County Medical System over several years; the board backed continuing advocacy.
County staff and the CEO’s office briefed the Ventura County Board of Supervisors April 14 on the local implications of HR 1, a federal package the county says will shift eligibility and administration rules for safety‑net programs and could significantly strain local health and human services budgets.
Michelle Guzman, the county’s government affairs manager, summarized multi‑agency modeling and association advocacy. She told the board the county estimates roughly 77,000 people could lose medical coverage under the policy changes and that the county’s medical system could face more than $400 million in cost pressures over several years; she also cited a separate $43 million projected hit to the general fund in human services. Guzman said those figures are subject to change as state and federal actions evolve and noted the county’s ongoing work with associations and legislators to mitigate impacts.
Guzman walked through recent advocacy and next procedural windows, including a May set of budget actions and association meetings that county leaders will use to press for state support or federal modifications. “We are asking for partnership and immediate, incremental modifications,” she said, describing local requests such as temporary deferral of certain penalties, expanded implementation time, and targeted budget relief.
Supervisors pressed staff on the numbers and operational implications. One supervisor emphasized that a 23 percent drop in Medi‑Cal enrollment could translate into a comparable increase in county uncompensated care costs and urged continued pressure on state and federal representatives. Board members supported continued county and coalition advocacy and asked staff to keep departments’ budget teams and the public briefed as numbers firm up.
The board voted to receive and file the report. Guzman said staff will track the May revision to the governor’s budget and other federal actions and return with recommended next steps.
