Economic and Revenue Forecast Council adopts conference assumptions for 2026 budget outlook, approves six guidance items
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Summary
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council voted on six technical guidance items for the 2026 budget outlook — adopting the conference committee’s assumptions for reversions, prior‑period adjustments and three nonmandatory projected expenditures (BSA repayment, city/county fiscal health funding and free school meals). Several members objected to adopting budget‑written assumptions as outlook standards.
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council met April 14 and approved guidance for the 2026 budget outlook on six items brought forward by the Outlook technical work group, adopting the conference budget’s assumptions on reversions, prior‑period adjustments and three nonmandatory out‑biennium items.
Senator Robinson convened the meeting and said the council would take each item, hear from staff, ask questions and then vote. Corbin Nemeth, Outlook staff to the council, described the six decision points and the rationale behind each recommendation, and identified the conference budget assumptions that the work group asked the council to accept.
On reversion assumptions, Nemeth said the conference approach uses a 1% general fund reversion assumption for fiscal year 2026 and 0.9% in fiscal years 2027–2029. Representative Orcutt moved to maintain ERFC historical practice (1% in FY26, 0.75% thereafter) arguing that the council should preserve consistent standards. Representative Berg opposed and moved to adopt the conference assumption (Option A). The council voted to adopt Option A after a recorded count.
The council then considered a $71 million duplicative FY26 appropriation to the Health Care Authority (HCA) that OFM had directed be placed in unallotted status. Representative Berg moved to treat that $71,000,000 as additional to the 1% reversion assumption (so the Outlook would reflect the increased FY26 reversion); Director Chapman supported treating the funds as likely to revert. The council approved that motion.
On prior period adjustments and annual comprehensive financial reporting updates, Nemeth noted the conference outlook assumed $125,000,000 per year versus an ERFC baseline of $20.4 million and a 10‑year average near $180 million. Representative Orcutt moved to retain the ERFC baseline practice; that motion failed. Representative Ormsby then moved to adopt the conference assumption of $125,000,000 per year, and the council approved that motion.
Items 4–6 addressed nonmandatory projected expenditures and transfers that the staff said are driven by legislative intent language rather than current law. The first of these was a proposed FY29 repayment to the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA) of $880,000,000 from a pension surplus holding account; staff estimated the holding account could be roughly $3.4 billion, but noted any repayment would be a future policy decision. Representative Berg moved to include the BSA repayment assumption in the Outlook; the council approved the motion after debate about statutory guidance in RCW 82.33.060.
For item 5, the Outlook staff described a proposed city and county fiscal health account that the conference materials projected at $200,000,000 in FY29 under the intent section of engrossed substitute Senate Bill 6346. Some members opposed including the projection because it is based on intent language and the matter was, according to a speaker, the subject of litigation; others said including the projection signals support for local governments. The council voted to include the $200,000,000 projection.
Item 6 asked whether to include $140,000,000 in FY29 for free school meals (to reimburse schools for meals not covered at the federal rate) as described in the conference materials and SB 6346 intent language. Representative Berg moved to include the funding; the council approved the motion.
Representative Orcutt asked the record to show he voted "no" on all six final motions; the chair apologized for not calling for no votes during the roll calls. The council adjourned and will meet next week to present the final enacted budget outlook for adoption.
Votes at a glance: the council adopted Option A (conference assumptions) on the reversion assumption; moved the $71,000,000 unallotted HCA appropriation into the FY26 reversion assumption; adopted the $125,000,000 per‑year prior period/ACFR assumption; and included in the Outlook the proposed FY29 BSA repayment ($880,000,000), a $200,000,000 city/county fiscal health projection, and $140,000,000 for free school meals. Representative Orcutt recorded a "no" vote on all six final motions.
