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Odo: Somerville outpaces state housing trends even as New Jersey faces demographic headwinds
Summary
Jeff Odo, chief economist with the Odo Group, told Somerville council members that statewide out‑migration and falling birth rates threaten long‑term apartment demand, even as Somerville records stronger home‑price and office market performance. He urged diversified housing and continued placemaking.
Jeff Odo, chief economist at the Odo Group, told the Somerville Borough Council on Oct. 6 that New Jersey is entering a period of structural demographic change that will reduce housing demand over the next several years while Somerville so far outperforms the state.
“New Jersey has a net loss of roughly 70,000 to 80,000 households a year,” Odo said during a presentation the council invited to inform its master plan. He said that loss, combined with falling birth rates, means the population of 25‑ to 34‑year‑olds — a key apartment‑demand cohort — is likely to shrink materially in the next five years.
The presentation contrasted those statewide trends with local data. Odo said home prices in Somerville have risen about 12.5% year‑to‑date and that office vacancy in Somerville is below 2%, calling both “outperformance” relative to Somerset County and the state. He also noted that statewide home‑price growth has slowed to about 5% in 2025.
Odo urged the borough to continue “creative placemaking” to retain younger households and diversify housing stock. “You’ll need to continue to engage in creative place‑making here and have a very full forward vision,” he said, recommending a mix of apartments, townhouses and senior‑targeted units rather than relying on a single housing product.
Council members pressed Odo on for‑sale condominiums and the viability of condominium flats in New Jersey. Odo said new condominium flats are financially challenging except in very high‑value markets; he cited higher maintenance fees and lending reluctance as obstacles.
On the office and retail markets, Odo said Somerville’s retail and office sectors have been resilient — retail vacancy about 3% and office availability low — and he forecast a gradual decline in mortgage and other interest rates over the next year, which should increase buying power and sales volume.
The council asked about remote work. Odo said WFH surged during the pandemic and has since moderated; he predicted employers will push for greater physical presence at work, a trend that would benefit transit‑connected downtowns like Somerville.
Why it matters: The presentation framed local planning choices — what product types to permit, how to support retail and transit links — against broader population and affordability trends that could change the long‑term market for apartments and for‑sale housing.
Next steps: The council discussed making the presentation slides available online and asked staff to use the analysis as input to the master‑planning and planning‑board discussions.
