Lifetime Citizen Portal Access — AI Briefings, Alerts & Unlimited Follows
Enrollment forecast shows elementary growth; Clay and Fourmile likely to exceed capacity
Loading...
Summary
Consultant RSP told the board the district is expected to grow about 8% by 2030–31, with elementary grades gaining roughly 290 students over five years and potential overcapacity at Clay and Fourmile elementaries; a planned new elementary from the 2025 referendum is expected to ease pressure.
RSP & Associates presented a five-year enrollment forecast to the Southeast Polk board on April 9 that shows steady district growth and capacity pressures at the elementary level.
"The district continuing to grow the next 5 years. Elementary grades bear the brunt of that growth," consultant Jenna Wallace said, noting RSP’s model forecasted roughly 290 additional elementary students over the next five years and district growth of about 8% by 2030–31.
Wallace told the board the district’s largest current class is the 12th grade (about 614 students), with a smaller incoming kindergarten class this year, and that the district’s grade progression and in-migration help offset demographic headwinds. RSP’s building-level analysis showed potential overutilization at Clay and Fourmile elementaries in the five-year horizon; she said the new elementary planned in the 2025 referendum should help rebalance capacity.
RSP described methodology (380 planning areas, yield rates by housing type, and meetings with city planners) and flagged that development pipelines and state programs such as ESAs could affect trends. Board members asked about timing of disclosed developments (RSP used city disclosures through December) and requested preliminary redistricting scenarios tied to the new elementary.
