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Weather service warns of above-normal wildland fire potential for May and June
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Summary
National Weather Service meteorologist Megan Taylor told county supervisors Coconino County sits in moderate drought with very low snowpack; outlooks show above-normal wildland fire potential for May and June, with monsoon moisture expected to ease danger by July.
Megan Taylor, the National Weather ServiceWarning Coordination Meteorologist in Flagstaff, told the Board of Supervisors that a wet fall improved drought conditions compared with the previous year but that snowpack remained well below normal.
Taylor said much of Coconino County is now in moderate drought and that Flagstaff had recorded about 26.9 inches of snow this season — roughly 30% of normal — producing a snow-water equivalent between 0% and 15% of normal at many stations. "We are currently in ENSO Neutral," Taylor said, noting the winter transitioned from weak La Nia1a to neutral conditions.
On seasonal outlooks, Taylor said models indicate a strong signal for continued warmth and that predictive services are projecting "above normal" significant wildland fire potential for May and through June across much of Northern Arizona, including Coconino County. She added the monsoon outlook for July—September currently leans toward above-normal precipitation, which should return fire potential toward normal by July if monsoon rainfall materializes.
The meteorologist urged that fire forecasts incorporate temperature, moisture and fuel conditions rather than precipitation alone: higher temperatures and low snowpack can increase fuelsdrying and fire danger even when yearly precipitation appears near normal.
Taylor's presentation provided the scientific backdrop that county and federal fire managers said they use when considering staged restrictions, prescribed burns and resource mobilization for the upcoming months.
The National Weather Service presentation concludes as agencies move into operational planning and public outreach for the spring and early summer fire season.
