Consultants tell Liberty board elementary enrollment flat amid housing growth, choice and homeschooling

The Liberty Elementary School District on April 13 heard a demographic and enrollment briefing that found steady district headcount in recent years but long-term risks from shifting birth rates and increased school choice.

Rick Brammer, the consultant presenting the analysis, told the board the district has been "relatively steady at about 4,400 the last several years," even as housing and population growth continue in parts of the district. Brammer said statewide declines in the school-age share of the population and a steady increase in school-choice options have kept many children out of district schools.

Brammer cited the 2022-23 voucher expansion and later trends in homeschooling as contributors to the flat elementary counts. "In 2022–23, roughly 80% of the people who took a voucher were already in a private school," he said, and homeschooling rates have roughly doubled in the last three years, he added. Those shifts, he said, reduce the share of nearby children who enroll in district schools.

Don Graves, introduced by Brammer as the district's residential development expert, told the board that while the district has seen roughly 8,800 housing units built in the last decade and several projects in the pipeline—including multifamily developments in the northwest that total about 900 planned units—unit type and price may limit immediate translation of new housing into elementary pupils.

Brammer explained the district measures both a population-driven projection (where kids live) and a school-by-school projection (which accounts for open enrollment). He warned the district's "service rate" (the share of 5-to-13-year-olds attending district schools) has been drifting lower and that in his baseline he assumes another roughly 0.5 percentage point decline per year, which tempers expected enrollment gains from new housing.

Board members pressed on implications for budgeting, staffing and marketing to families. Board member Zimmerman asked for data transparency and repeated access to the enrollment counts. President Schmidt and other members noted differences among attendance areas and that growth in parts of the district can mask declines elsewhere.

The presentation concluded with staff and board members discussing how the district might use outreach or programmatic strategies to retain and attract students; Brammer recommended continued tracking of attendance-area trends and close monitoring of how new multifamily and higher-priced housing types affect student generation.

The board did not take action on the forecasts at the meeting; the presentation was provided to inform upcoming budget and facility planning.