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UHERO modelers tell Hawaii committee LNG plan is unlikely to beat renewables-plus-storage
Summary
University of Hawaii researchers presented Switch-model results showing that, under most plausible assumptions, large LNG infrastructure and a 500 MW LNG plant would raise system costs, crowd out renewables and carry contract and market risks; only a narrow set of assumptions made LNG competitive.
University of Hawaii researchers Michael Roberts and Matthias Fripp presented a scenario-based capacity-planning analysis using the Switch model and told the Committee on Energy and Environmental Protection that most plausible futures favor solar plus batteries over large LNG imports.
Roberts framed the analysis by noting recent fuel-price volatility and changes in low-sulfur fuel oil contracts that affect Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) cost inputs. He said long-term LNG supply contracts carry distinct risks for a small buyer, including take-or-pay commitments, potential contract renegotiation and high cost-overrun risk for liquefaction and shipping infrastructure.
Fripp explained…
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