National Weather Service: Missoula sees above-normal moisture now, El Niño raises fire-season uncertainty

Jeff Hitzelow, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told the LEPC that the 2025–26 winter was unusually warm and wet in parts of western Montana, leaving above-normal soil moisture in the Missoula area but variable snowpack across elevations.

He said low-elevation snow has melted early while higher-elevation basins still hold above-normal snow water equivalent; this mix means runoff potential exists but a large rain-on-snow event would be required for significant flooding. Using river-forecast exceedance probabilities for the Clark Fork near Missoula, Jeff noted a 50% chance of reaching about 6.91 feet by May 26 in one modeled scenario and said higher flood levels (8–10 feet) remain low-probability outcomes without an unusually wet spring.

Jeff also reviewed climate outlooks: forecasters expect a high probability that El Niño conditions will develop this spring and summer (presenter cited roughly 90% chance of El Niño), though the models place only about a 30% chance that it will be a very strong (“super”) El Niño. He emphasized the operational implications: if summer mirrors some historical El Niño years, Missoula could see warm summer conditions with thunderstorms and an elevated lightning-caused fire-start risk.

"We always watch for rain-on-snow events," Jeff said, adding that the current setup makes major flooding unlikely but not impossible. County staff commented that "June and July will tell the story" for runoff and fire risk.

The NWS recommended continued monitoring of precipitation and river levels and said they will update forecasts as spring runoff progresses.