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National Weather Service: Missoula sees above-normal moisture now, El Niño raises fire-season uncertainty
Summary
The National Weather Service briefed the LEPC that recent winter precipitation left above-normal soil moisture in parts of Missoula, snowmelt timing is early at low elevations, and El Niño conditions are likely — raising uncertainty about summer thunderstorm-driven fire starts despite currently favorable moisture.
Jeff Hitzelow, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told the LEPC that the 2025–26 winter was unusually warm and wet in parts of western Montana, leaving above-normal soil moisture in the Missoula area but variable snowpack across elevations.
He said low-elevation snow has melted early while higher-elevation basins still hold above-normal snow water equivalent; this mix…
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