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County administrator presents early FY2027 forecast showing strong assessed values, but $4M pledged to Tuckahoe Creek debt
Summary
Goochland County staff gave an early FY2027 revenue forecast in January 2026 showing assessed values up about 8% year‑over‑year and projected property‑tax collections near $54.4 million; staff warned roughly $4.0 million of that is effectively committed to the Tuckahoe Creek Service District debt under existing bond pledges.
Goochland County Administrator Dr. Raley told the Board of Supervisors at a January 2026 budget workshop that the county’s January certified assessed value is $10.3 billion and early projections put combined property‑tax collections for the December 2026 and June 2027 cycles at about $54.4 million.
“The vast majority of those dollars come from general property taxes,” Dr. Raley said, explaining staff used a conservative 97% collection index and a 4% assessor forecast for next year to estimate December and subsequent June receipts.
The presentation traced why forecasting is difficult: assessments are set on a calendar‑year schedule in January, but tax collections fall into different fiscal years (first collections on June 5 and again on December 5). Dr. Raley said the timing mismatch requires conservative modeling because the January 2027 assessed value is unknown today.
Board members pressed staff about the Tuckahoe Creek Service District (TCSD). Staff explained TCSD properties are taxed at a separate 32¢ per $100 rate and bond indentures pledged a portion of ad‑valorem receipts. That pledge and the district’s debt service effectively reduce the amount available to the general fund; staff used a $4.0 million TCSD payment assumption in the forecast.
Supervisor questions also focused on which new commercial projects (for example, Amazon and other industrial parcels under development) staff should include in projections before those properties receive certificates of occupancy and formally hit the tax rolls. Dr. Raley said the county did not include unfinalized projects in the early forecast but could add them later as a budgeting lever.
The administrator said other significant local revenue lines — personal property, machinery and tools, sales taxes and building permits — were also reviewed and that the county removed one‑time Amazon permit revenue from the baseline when setting permit forecasts. Staff will update projections before the February and March budget work sessions, and the administrator plans to present a balanced recommended budget for board consideration in mid‑May.
The board did not take formal votes on revenue policy at the workshop; staff will return with refined numbers and additional scenarios.
