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UW–Madison demographer projects steady enrollment declines across Chippewa Falls schools
Summary
A UW–Madison demographer told the Chippewa Falls Area Unified School District board that falling births and increased open‑enrollment outflows make a 5‑ to 12‑percent drop likely over five years, with larger declines at lower grade levels; the board discussed policy responses and communication plans.
David Egan Robinson Robertson of the University of Wisconsin–Madison Applied Population Lab presented a 10‑year enrollment projection Thursday to the Chippewa Falls Area Unified School District board, saying the district can expect modest but steady declines driven mainly by smaller birth cohorts and continued net outflows under the state open‑enrollment program.
"We're losing a little over 1 percent per year on average across the last 10 years," Robertson said, summarizing historical trends and model outputs that show elementary enrollment down roughly 5 to 7 percent and middle school down about 10 to 12 percent in five years. He said the lab uses three primary inputs—births, 4K/kindergarten counts and grade‑progression ratios—and produces a range of scenarios rather than a single forecast.
The presentation explained methods and caveats: birth counts within a small district can be noisy, migration is imprecisely measured at local scales, and projections smooth volatility in the recent history. Robertson also noted that the district’s net open‑enrollment outflow has nearly doubled over the past decade; his baseline models hold that outflow constant rather than assuming further doubling.
Board members asked whether the pattern is statewide and about the role of nearby private schools. Robertson said declining births are a statewide factor—he cited a roughly 16 percent decline in births over 17 years—and confirmed that private‑school enrollment increases locally are probably drawing from the same shrinking child population.
Why it matters: the projected declines have implications for staffing, facility planning and budgeting. Board members said the data will help inform discussions about boundary review, programming and potential policy changes to attract or retain students.
Next steps: Robertson provided contact information for follow‑up and the board signaled that the projections will be used in the district’s elementary boundary review and in compensation and staffing plans going into next year’s budget cycle.
