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Finance staff presents conservative and optimistic five‑year budget scenarios; board pushes for conservative interim budget
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Summary
At the April 20 meeting, finance staff presented two five‑year projections — a conservative Version A tied to audited statements and a more optimistic Version B that includes anticipated projects — and provided reconciled investment statements as of March 31; members urged conservatism, closer internal controls and more timely balances for agenda items.
Mr. Neighbors, presenting the long‑term financial projections, gave the board two scenarios: Version A, a conservative projection built from audited financial statements and minimal project‑driven revenue, and Version B, an optimistic model that includes large proposed projects and additional ad valorem and sales tax assumptions.
Neighbors explained that Version A assumes very modest growth (about 1% annual sales tax growth) and explicitly excludes projected new industrial projects and speculative sales‑tax inflows until projects reach a later stage; Version B includes many of those projects and therefore shows higher revenues in later years. He said Version A is intended to “undershoot revenues and overshoot expenditures” so the board can build fund balance and protect cash flow.
Board members repeatedly asked for historical variance data to evaluate the two approaches; one member asked for a baseline series going back to 2004 or 2009 to see how projections fared against actual collections. Neighbors and other staff said they would provide the supporting files and meet with the CFO to align assumptions.
On the expenditure side, staff called out drivers such as health insurance (projected to grow about 7.5%) and other inflationary pressures; Neighbors estimated that one mill of property tax yields roughly $2.5 million and said the parish may have capacity for one to two additional mills in a longer‑term context, though any millage revenue would not materially help near‑term cash flow.
Neighbors also presented reconciled investment statements as of March 31, describing three primary account groups (longer‑term holdings, a building fund and the operating/LAMP account) and noting that amounts had been posted and reconciled. He said moving cash between accounts is part of managing short‑term investment returns while meeting payroll and cash needs.
Why it matters: The board is preparing an interim budget in the coming weeks. Choosing a projection approach changes planned spending, fund‑balance targets and whether the board pursues millage adjustments or other revenue actions.
Next steps: Staff said it would aim to deliver the interim budget before the May board meeting if possible, provide the requested historical variance analysis, and supply electronic copies of the projections and investment statements. No formal votes were taken.
