Kansas consensus revenue estimate: FY26 receipts revised down to $10.099B; FY27 projected at $10.206B

Shirley, presenting the consensus revenue estimate, said the state's total receipts for fiscal year 2026 are estimated at $10,099,000,000, a decrease of $127,400,000 (1.2%) from the fall estimate, and that FY27 receipts are estimated at $10,206,000,000, an increase of $72,700,000 (0.7%) versus the previous fall estimate.

The presenters said the downward revision for FY26 largely reflects receipts through March that ran $162,100,000 (2.3%) below prior projections. "Through the month of March, state general fund receipts were down relative to the estimate by a 162,100,000 or 2.3%, which is the primary explanation of [the] downward revision," Shirley stated.

Analysts noted a mix of risks to the outlook, including the Iran military conflict, market volatility, elevated input prices and higher interest rates, but said Kansas's economy and general fund receipts remain "resilient and largely stable in the face of these risks." The forecast team adjusted short-term assumptions: spring estimates raised inflation and nominal GDP modestly (inflation for calendar 2026 was increased from 2.8% to…