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Board reviews draft facilities master plan as demographers flag long‑term build‑out tied to Barstow International Gateway
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Summary
DC Architects and a demographer presented a facilities master plan and a 10‑year and 'maturation' demographic forecast showing current enrollment near 6,145, a possible short‑term decline to about 4,800 absent major housing, and a long‑term build‑out up to roughly 11,000 students if the Barstow International Gateway proceeds.
DC Architects and district consultants presented a draft facilities master plan to the Barstow Unified School District Board of Trustees, saying the plan is intended to prioritize modernization, safety upgrades and longer‑term capacity planning tied to the Barstow International Gateway development.
The district’s consultants said the master plan combines a facility condition review with a demography study and a budget framework to guide future projects. “This plan will serve as a strategic road map to guide future improvements, modernization efforts, and responsible use of our resources across all sites,” a district presenter said while turning the presentation over to DC Architects.
DC Architects and a demographic analyst described two forecast scenarios for the district: a near‑term projection that shows enrollment drifting downward over the next 10 years from a current baseline the presenters cited as “about 6,145 students” to roughly 4,800 if current birth rates and mobility trends continue; and a build‑out or “maturation” scenario tied to the Barstow International Gateway that could bring district enrollment toward roughly 11,000 students at full development.
Consultants stressed that the maturation estimate assumes current zoning and planned residential parcels will be developed and that the timing depends on permits and construction schedules. The demographer said the maturation analysis draws on student address files and projected housing yields, and uses yield factors of about 0.589 for single‑family homes and 0.2957 for multifamily units in the district’s study area.
The presentation cataloged typical campus deficiencies and cost drivers the master plan would address: ADA path‑of‑travel upgrades required by the Division of the State Architect (DSA), HVAC and roofing work, plumbing and sewer improvements, security upgrades (fencing, buzz‑in systems and cameras), and classroom modernization. The consultants recommended building a menu of prioritized projects and noted ADA upgrades are typically shown as non‑negotiable items in the planning estimates.
The board asked for clarification about how the district would pursue hardship applications with DSA—an exemption that the consultant said can limit district ADA spend to 20% of a project’s budget but is site‑specific and can be difficult to replicate across projects. The master plan also included three stadium approaches with cost estimates: a life‑extension renovation estimated at roughly $3.8–$5.8 million; a cost‑conscious bleacher replacement and support‑facility improvements at about $8.5–$11.5 million; and a premium reconstruction at about $16–$19 million.
The consultants described the master plan as a working draft and solicited board feedback, noting site‑specific estimates and schedules will be refined once permit activity and the Barstow International Gateway project timetable become clearer. The board did not take any formal action on the master plan at the meeting; consultants said staff will incorporate questions and additional data into the next draft and share follow‑up information about the geographic scope used for the maturation analysis.
Ending: District staff said they will work with the demographer to provide more detail on the study area and maturation assumptions, and the board will have future opportunities to review revised site estimates and a final master plan draft.
